Today, Scott Barlow broke data riddled with the ‘R’ word. You know the one. Recession.
Barlow, a market strategist for The Globe and Mail, cited data from TD economists which analyzed recessionary risk in Canada over the next 12 months to two years. In particular, yield curves were suggested to be the strongest indicator of recession risk.
“The current level of Canadian yield curves is consistent with a 20-40% chance of a recession over the next 12 months, or 35-60% probability over the next two years, although other measures such as the ISM Manufacturing Index or labour/equity markets suggest a lower probability,” the analysis reads. “The housing indicator is the most alarming of the group, as it signals an 85% likelihood of recession over the next year or two.”
TD: “The housing indicator is the most alarming of the group, as it signals an 85% likelihood of…