Read more: US contraction an omen for Canadian economy, says BMO’s Guatieri
Skill mismatches in the job market are likely to add an element of prolonged economic risk, the economists added.
“Extreme variance in employment and economic activity is why occupations that aren’t particularly skill-based (baggage handlers, restaurant waiters, etc.) have seen persistent job vacancies this year,” the duo said. “Those who held such jobs in early 2020 had two years to move on; unlike after a typical two- or three-quarter recession, they weren’t working in a related position in the prior year, so these businesses need fresh faces, and they’re all hiring at the same time.”
CIBC is anticipating inflation will go down, and stay down, “only because growth slows to well below what used to be considered its non-inflationary potential, and we…